White evangelicals lose electoral ground while religious nones expand their influence
Religious “nones” outnumbered white evangelicals by a stunning ten percentage points in the 2026 midterms electorate, up from just one point in 2024.
Why it matters: The era of conservative white evangelicals dominating America’s religious-political narrative faces a mathematical collapse.
By the numbers: White evangelical or born-again Christians accounted for 17% of voters Tuesday, down from 23% in 2024 and 24% in 2022, according to preliminary 2026 voter polling and earlier exit polls.
- Their Republican loyalty barely budged: 82% backed GOP House candidates, compared with 84% in 2024 and 83% in 2022.
- Religiously unaffiliated voters, known as “nones,” accounted for 27% of the electorate Tuesday, compared with 24% in 2024.
- Their Democratic support climbed from 70% to 78%.
What they’re saying: “In most of those midwestern states, the white evangelicals are outnumbered in the population by the white mainline Protestants,” Robert P. Jones, president and founder of the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), told Axios.
- Jones said their decline over roughly two decades extends beyond election results, with evangelical denominations losing millions of members.
The big picture: White evangelical Protestants account for just 13% of American adults, down from 23% in 2006, according to PRRI’s 2025 Census of American Religion.
- Yet they accounted for 17% of voters Tuesday, a larger share than their population footprint, though the surveys define the group differently.
- Religious “nones” now account for 28% of adults, up from 16% in 2006.
Zoom in: Even Trump’s most loyal religious supporters have cooled on his second term.
- His approval among white evangelical Protestants fell from 78% in early 2025 to 58% before the midterms, according to Pew Research Center.
- They remain the only major religious group Pew analyzed in which a majority approves of his performance.
Between the lines: So far, the religious right’s shrinking demographic footprint hasn’t weakened its influence in Washington.
- Trump established a White House Faith Office and created a Justice Department task force to investigate anti-Christian bias.
