Historically a check on the executive’s muscle, midterm elections are a chance for the US electorate to vocalise how it feels about its president. I witnessed such a seesaw of power on several occasions during my tenure as Monocle’s US editor between 2014 and 2020. In 2014, Barack Obama suffered a heavy midterm defeat, which meant that he had to ride out the final two years of his presidency without control of either chamber of Congress. In 2018, during Donald Trump’s first term, it was the Republicans’ turn to cede the House of Representatives to the Democrats.

In 2014, as now, the press was talking about the midterms being a referendum on the presidency. But the scale of Trump’s loss yesterday, ceding both houses to the Democrats, is staggering. It’s projected to be the largest popular vote victory for either side since 1976, making Trump a lame-duck president until his second term finishes in early 2029. In an interview shortly after the results came in, a sombre and surprisingly non-combative Trump refused to accept the state of the economy as a reason for the loss. And he still claimed that, had his name been on the ticket, Republicans would have won a landslide. This, of course, sidesteps the fact that his name was often front and centre, with loud endorsements for the likes of South Carolina’s Darline Graham (sister of the late Lindsey Graham) and Georgia’s Mike Collins: two Republican candidates who ended up losing.

Perhaps the biggest news emerged from Texas, which, in part due to its liberal cities and large Latino population, has been “purpling” for a long time but has never pushed through into blue territory (I remember interviewing Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Lupe Valdez in 2018, a candidate who had all the odds, including financial, stacked against her when she lost to Greg Abbott). This election cycle has proved a much happier one for the Democrats. Gina Hinojosa has ousted long-timer Abbott and is set to be the state’s first Latina governor. And James Talarico, the fresh-faced seminary student touted as a future presidential candidate, won the first blue Senate seat in the state since 1988.

These midterms have plenty of firsts, from the first openly gay man elected to the Senate (Chris Pappas, New Hampshire) to the US’s first black female governor (Keisha Lance Bottoms, Georgia). The win of 42-year-old senator-elect Abdul el-Sayed in Michigan also cemented the ascendancy of the Democratic Party’s left wing, which could potentially cause a schism within the party as it decides just how progressive it wants to be ahead of the 2028 presidential race.

For now, Democrats are basking in their victory and the prospect of claiming some power back – something that could lead to a swathe of investigations into Donald Trump. The president has said that he is prepared to work with his opponents but any hint of bipartisanship is unlikely to last long. If the victors start sticking their noses where they’re not wanted, expect old dividing lines to become ever more entrenched.

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