Property insurance prices are about to become a political flashpoint in the 2026 midterms. The average US homeowner paid $2,948 a year for coverage in 2025, a 12% jump from the year before. Zoom out further and premiums have risen 46% since 2021. Severe convective storms racked up an estimated $50 billion in insured US losses in 2025, the third costliest year on record for that peril. The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires cost roughly $40 billion insured, the costliest wildfire event on record. The US accounted for 83% of the world’s $107 billion in insured catastrophe losses last year. These rising rates are amplified in certain areas. Oklahoma, Colorado, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota logged the sharpest 2025 rate hikes.

The political impact is only beginning to be felt. Polling of 1,500 Americans found 58% say rising insurance costs make them more likely to vote this fall; 61% believe elections in their state actually affect what they pay for coverage. Another poll found that three quarters of Midwestern homeowners worried about rising premiums, with 86% wanting elected officials to do more. Insurance affordability is now a “kitchen table” issue competing with groceries and gas as a voter concern.

Governors appoint the insurance commissioner in 39 states, which means this year’s wave of gubernatorial elections carries real weight for the industry. But four states directly elect an insurance commissioner. California, Georgia, Oklahoma and Kansas are holding those elections this November. All four states recorded meaningful 2025 rate increases.

Some states have enacted state-run insurance plans, the last resort for property insurance. When private carriers won’t write coverage, homeowners can buy from the state insurer. The problem is these plans are designed to be temporary holding pens, not permanent homes for coverage. FAIR plans typically charge higher premiums than private insurance. They are also likely unsustainable in the long term. State-run insurers, some holding as much as $650 billion in exposure, have enormous concentration risk. One catastrophic loss year could require bailouts and would result in massive spikes in premium costs. In some states, losses large enough could even threaten the state government’s fiscal stability.

Despite the possible devastating repercussions, the federal government has largely stayed out. The Government Accountability Office proposed various mitigation tax credits but found regulators, insurers, and consumer groups were far from unified on anything resembling a federal backstop. One idea gaining attention in policy circles is a federal reinsurance facility to backstop state FAIR plans and bring down the cost of last resort coverage. The idea hasn’t gained real traction in Congress.

Florida offers a case study in how messy state responses to this problem can get. Governor Ron DeSantis and insurance commissioner Mike Yaworsky have spent the past year touting tort reforms as the fix, pointing to an 8.7% average rate cut for Citizens Property Insurance policyholders taking effect at spring 2026 renewals. But the state’s own insurance office approved rate increases for most Citizens customers as recently as last year even as officials publicly touted coming decreases. Reform might provide short-term political wins but it doesn’t address the fundamental actuarial problems.

The reality is that politicians can’t solve homeowners insurance affordability through regulation alone. Rising catastrophe losses are a mathematical problem. If you believe in climate change or not, the fact is that we are seeing are more frequent and severe storms. Coastal and disaster prone areas keep attracting population growth. Eventually something has to give. Either premiums rise to reflect actual risk, or private carriers retreat further and state programs absorb exposure they can’t sustainably manage. The 2026 midterms will feature multiple candidates promising to lower insurance costs. Those who are able to provide homeowners with relief, real or not, could see a spike in support that could help them win this election and more elections to come.