Ursula von der Leyen has pegged her political legacy to making Europe more independent in a dangerous world. On Wednesday, the European Commission president will have to explain how that’s going — and what’s next.

As the EU deals with wars, wildfires and Donald Trump, von der Leyen will use her sixth State of the Union speech to lay out her agenda: climate-proofing Europe; catching up with China and the U.S. on artificial intelligence; turbocharging the bloc’s defense industry; and reforming its migration rules.

The speech will be revised and rewritten right up to the point she delivers it. But based on conversations with more than a dozen European officials, granted anonymity to discuss the president’s priorities and talking points, here’s what POLITICO’s newsroom has heard she will say.

Artificial Intelligence

AI headlined the Commission’s away day in Tervuren earlier this month when they planned the speech. Tellingly, the Commission’s special adviser on industrial AI applications, Siemens chair Jim Hagemann Snabe, was in attendance that day.

A separate gathering of heads of cabinets, which saw them pitch their departments’ priorities for inclusion in the speech to von der Leyen’s right-hand man Bjoern Seibert, touched on how to present AI’s impact on jobs.

Von der Leyen’s team has asked the Commission’s relevant policy units to provide fresh statistics for the speech on the number of jobs likely to be lost and created as AI adoption spreads, according to one of the officials with knowledge of the closed-door talks.

Competitiveness

Two years after former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s landmark report on how to make the continent competitive again, von der Leyen is set to take stock of her Commission’s efforts to deal with Europe’s economic malaise by simplifying its bureaucracy.

She is set to talk about a regulatory “deep house cleaning” and the principle of “simplicity by design,” a senior European official said. “Honestly, she has to bring it,” the official added.

But they noted competitiveness won’t be the main topic of the speech this time. That honor will go to …

Climate

As Europe emerges from an infernal summer, with its rivers drying and its forests torched, climate adaptation — one of the main subjects discussed by von der Leyen’s commissioners at a seminar earlier this month to guide the speech — is set to feature prominently in her address.

The Commission is already working on a plan to improve Europe’s resilience to climate change. That policy package, scheduled for late October and expected to include measures such as a common climate scenario spelling out the future conditions EU countries will need to brace for, and regular risk assessments, will likely feature in the speech — though it remains to be seen how much detail the president will give.

The climate focus comes as von der Leyen’s Commission tries to defend its 2040 emissions-cutting target while responding to mounting pressure from industry and national capitals to limit the economic cost of the green transition.

Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra told POLITICO the Commission wants to ensure planning is “mainstreamed” throughout European and national policymaking, meaning that climate resilience would be considered at every step of decision-making on infrastructure investments, legislation and more.

An official said the speech could also include mentions of water resilience and the circular economy.

Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen told POLITICO he hoped climate adaptation would come up in von der Leyen’s speech. “We need to do more … on climate mitigation, we are all aware of that, but as well as climate adaptation,” he said.

Trade

One of the big questions looming over von der Leyen’s speech is whether she will mention China.

In her 2023 speech, she announced that the Commission was launching a bombshell anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles. The move caused a tit-for-tat response from Beijing targeting European exports such as pork and brandy.

That won’t be the case this time, according to one official, and von der Leyen won’t announce another probe. Beijing won’t be very prominent in the speech, though she is slated to stress the need for the EU to speed up diversification efforts and could go as far as name-checking the Commission’s mooted diversification tool.

Migration

Von der Leyen’s speech takes place in the wake of the Ceuta crisis, which saw tens of thousands of migrants enter the Spanish territory, sending political shockwaves through the bloc over the summer.

Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner presented his fellow commissioners with a report on the lessons learned from the saga during this month’s College seminar, the only commissioner to make such a presentation, a European official told POLITICO.

Von der Leyen is set to use her speech to call for the strengthening of Frontex, the EU border agency. That includes more than tripling the number of European border and coast guards to 30,000, from roughly 7,800 today, and potentially expanding Frontex’s mandate and powers, according to three officials, allowing the agency to play a role in so-called return hubs in third countries.

Two officials also said von der Leyen could open the door to funding border infrastructure (translation: fences) using EU cash — a significant shift in the Commission’s position. One official said she could also float using the bloc’s funds to help member countries finance return hubs outside the bloc.

But the most controversial idea under consideration for the speech, according to a senior diplomat and an EU official, is a European framework for situations of mass migratory pressure to allow for the suspension of some asylum rules and faster returns. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis floated a similar idea in a recent POLITICO op-ed.

Defense

Defense and security are also expected to feature prominently in the speech, with the long-awaited Security Strategy expected in early October.

The strategy was originally expected to follow the NATO summit in Ankara in July, and its postponement is fueling expectations that von der Leyen will use her address to get out ahead of the document, previewing some of its key ideas and priorities.

The Commission is also preparing an updated Arctic policy, currently expected on Oct. 20 and renamed the North Neighbourhood and Arctic Strategy to reflect its broader geographic focus. Von der Leyen recently returned from Greenland, saying Europe wanted to become “more engaged in the Arctic.”

With Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in attendance, an EU official said von der Leyen could announce an Arctic security initiative together with Ottawa. “Security and defense is always her happy place,” the official said.

Another senior official pointed out that von der Leyen was hosting Carney, and a “good host” gives gifts, though they could not say what those policy presents would be.

Social media

Von der Leyen has confirmed she will use her speech to unveil plans for social media age restrictions, with a legislative proposal possibly dropping on the same day. There are many difficult questions she will have to answer, including what minimum age will be set and whether she will let EU countries set their own age limit.

Last week, at a ministerial dinner in Dublin, capitals couldn’t agree on a number, three officials told POLITICO.

On Monday, POLITICO reported that the Commission will on Thursday unveil a new EU KIDS Act. The proposal aims to create a tiered system for accessing social media under parental supervision before age 15.

The Commission is also likely to extend age restrictions to other services, such as gaming platforms and AI chatbots.

“We do not have to accept childhoods shaped by algorithms,” von der Leyen said Thursday.

Zia Weise, Eliza Gkritsi, Marianne Gros, Agnes Rønberg, Gerardo Fortuna, Zoya Sheftalovich, Camille Gijs, Jacopo Barigazzi and Pieter Haeck contributed to this report.

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