Bitcoin Sits on Its 200-Day Average as Democrats Close In on Both Chambers of Congress: Is the Crypto Market Structure Bill Out of Time?
Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $76,900 on Tuesday, November 3, as Americans voted in midterms that Polymarket traders see Democrats sweeping, 76.5% for the Senate and 94.5% for the House, a result that could push crypto’s market structure law to 2027 or later.
The industry spent big to stop that. Crypto-linked groups have put more than $200 million into this cycle. Yet the bill they most wanted, the CLARITY Act, is still stuck in the Senate, seven weeks after a 49-50 vote left it 11 votes short.
Now the clock is the problem. Any bill that hasn’t passed when this Congress ends on January 3 dies with it, and the next Congress would have to start from scratch.
BTC USD price itself is down 1.3% in 24 hours and 9.8% over the past month, and it is sitting right on its 200-day average. Spot ETFs lost $398.6 million on Monday, and the Fear & Greed Index reads 26.
So how long could a Democratic Congress hold up crypto laws, and does the market care?
Where the Crypto Bills Stand Before the Vote
One law is done, the other is stalled. The GENIUS Act, the stablecoin law, was signed in July 2025, and Treasury says its rules are on track. The CLARITY Act never made it through the Senate. It would decide when a token falls under the SEC or the CFTC.
The House passed it 294-134 on July 17, 2025. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version 15-9 in May. Then, on September 15, a vote to open debate failed 49-50 when it needed 60.
Two fights sank it:
- Ethics: Democrats wanted tougher rules to stop officials and their families from profiting from crypto. Sen. Ruben Gallego, who led those talks, said Republicans “refuse to say no to the president”
- Banks: Republicans Josh Hawley, Susan Collins and Jerry Moran voted no, with Moran warning that yield on stablecoins could pull deposits away from community banks
Would a Democratic Sweep Delay Crypto Laws?
Almost certainly for this bill. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for the Senate, and prediction market traders gave them a 74% chance on Monday, the highest since the market opened.
The only route left for the current text is the lame duck session between the election and January. NYDIG’s Greg Cipolaro said in May that it works only if Republicans keep the Senate and Majority Leader John Thune puts it ahead of government funding deadlines. If Democrats win, he said, the bill is unlikely to move when the new Congress starts.
The White House isn’t counting on it either. “There’s no holding them back in hopes of a lame duck passage of the bill,” crypto adviser Patrick Witt said in September, pointing the SEC and CFTC to write rules on their own.
A Democratic Senate would also hand the gavels to people who voted against this bill. Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Banking Committee, opposed it in May and would be in line to chair it. Expect a new draft with:
- tougher ethics rules covering the president’s crypto businesses
- limits on stablecoins that pay yield
- stronger consumer protections
Then there is the White House. President Trump has already said that if Democrats win the House, “I guess I’ll become Mr Veto.” A bill both sides can pass, and he will sign, means starting over in 2027.
Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, now on OKX’s board, called it “a hostile Congress” for the industry. Still, not everything stops: regulators’ rules don’t need a vote, though without a law behind them, they are easier to challenge in court and to reverse under the next president.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is the 200-Day Average Holding?
Barely. BTC trades at $76,903, just above the 200-day EMA at $76,504, and 39% below its $126,080 record from October 2025.
The daily chart shows the levels that matter this week:
- 50-day EMA: $80,117, now sloping down and above the price
- Resistance: $81,971, where the last bounce before the Binance hack stopped
- Support: $74,968, the September low, and below it little until $62,535
BTCUSDT 1D chart. Source: TradingView.
| Scenario | Condition | Where it could lead |
|---|---|---|
| Advance | A daily close above $80,117 | $81,971, the pre-hack high |
| Pause | Holding between $74,968 and $80,117 | More range trade while the count and the lame duck agenda come in |
| Retreat | A daily close below $74,968 | $62,535, the summer base |
A Democratic sweep is mostly priced in. The surprise would be a Republican Senate, which would reopen the lame duck window for the CLARITY Act.
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