Democrats in a pair of deep-red states are testing the religious right’s dominance by putting their Christian faith at the center of their campaigns — potentially creating a template for the party to compete in similarly forbidding terrain.

Why it matters: Upsets by Texas’ James Talarico and Kansas’ Adam Hamilton would all but ensure that Democrats take the Senate.

• A recent poll from Pew shows both an opening and an obstacle: White evangelicals still strongly favor Republicans, while many other Christian groups lean Democratic or are more narrowly split.

---

The big picture: Talarico, a Presbyterian seminary student, and Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor, are challenging conservatives’ claim to speak for faith. Their bids come after Democrat Raphael Warnock, senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, was elected to the Senate in 2021.

• President Trump won both Texas and Kansas by double digits in 2024. Neither state has sent a Democrat to the Senate in the 21st century — the last time Kansas did was in 1932. Both races this year are considered toss-ups.

Zoom in: Talarico’s “religiosity is a way to soften his liberalism” and potentially win over Christians turned off by his scandal-plagued opponent, says Brandon Rottinghaus, who co-hosts Houston Public Media’s “Party Politics.”

• Talarico has also made several visits to Black Baptist churches. Trump made inroads with minority communities in Texas, and Talarico looks to do the same after besting Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), who is Black, in a brutal primary.
• He’s harnessed scripture in his pitch against Christian nationalism and for protecting the vulnerable, invoking the biblical campaign slogan, “It’s time to start flipping tables.”
• “We’re in a populist political moment, and many of the teachings of the social gospel give him an opportunity to link the politics and his faith together,” Rottinghaus adds.

By the numbers: A September Marist survey of 1,139 Texas registered voters showed Paxton with a 75% to 22% lead over Talarico among white evangelical Christians.

In Kansas, the race will hinge less on whether Hamilton can win large numbers of religious Republicans and more on whether he can replicate Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s coalition, says Alexandra Middlewood, the political science department chair at Wichita State University.

• Hamilton has presented himself as a bridge-builder, drawing on his experience leading the largest United Methodist church in the nation.
• His well-known religious background could appeal to less engaged, moderate Christians and center-right voters, Middlewood says.

Yes, but: While Kansas has elected blue governors and voted to keep abortion legal in the state, Republicans have a massive registration advantage that’s made a Democratic Senate win “near impossible,” notes Bob Beatty, Washburn University’s political science chair.

• Establishment Democrats have long been viewed with suspicion, especially in western Kansas, he said.
• But Hamilton being a pastor “gives him an open doorway to approach those voters in western Kansas that I would argue previous Democrats have not had.”

Zoom out: Black clergy — including Warnock — have a history of political action. But white clergy are stepping up to run as Democrats in substantial numbers.

• In Iowa, Sarah Trone Garriott, a Lutheran minister, and Lindsay James, a Presbyterian pastor, are running in tight House races.

Pastor Doug Pagitt, executive director of progressive Christian group Vote Common Good, says the religious left’s surge is driven by candidates’ personal convictions and years-long efforts from groups like his that have trained politicians on how to connect with faith voters.

• But Trump, who Pagitt says has repeatedly offended Christians, is also a motivator: “There is no single person who could be more helpful to Democrats reaching out to religious people right now than Donald Trump. He is the greatest recruiting tool.”

Yes, but: Trump has repeatedly defied predictions that the religious right wouldn’t vote for him.

The other side: Ralph Reed, chair of the conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition, tells Axios he’s doubtful the Democrats’ effort to lean into religion will attract voters of faith.

• “Voters will not vote for a candidate who professes to hold to their faith, but doesn’t share their values,” he says.
• One GOP opponent labeled clergy running for office as Democrats “PINOs” — Pastors in Name Only.

But while Reed says he’s confident Republicans will turn out after Trump’s battleground blitz, he acknowledges their economic struggles.

• “Evangelicals and other conservative voters of faith, they live in the real world too,” he says.

Whether evangelicals are motivated to show up will be a major story of the midterms, says Ryan Burge of the John C. Danforth Center on Religion and Politics.

• The other will be how Catholics shift: “If the Adam Hamiltons, the James Talaricos of the world can win over people, it’s going to be … marginally attached Catholics,” Burge predicts.

The bottom line: There’s a clear movement on the religious left — but the question remains whether voters will join it.

Go deeper: “Shocking” number of white clergy run as Democrats in 2026