Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a second-round runoff with a clear frontrunner: Flávio Bolsonaro. The son of controversial far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro overperformed in Sunday’s first-round polls, claiming 47 per cent of the vote compared with 45 per cent for incumbent left-wing leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

The race now heads to a runoff on 25 October but the wind is clearly in the sails of the younger Bolsonaro, who just months ago was written off, beleaguered by political infighting and beset by scandal. His potential victory later this month, combined with a broader right-wing sweep of key gubernatorial, senatorial and congressional races on Sunday, speaks volumes about the trajectory of the country.

First and foremost, the conservative right remains firmly in the ascendancy. Despite clichéd global stereotypes of samba and Carnival, the forces directing Brazil today are evangelical Christianity, so-called “traditional values” and an all-powerful agribusiness sector, which dominates Brazil’s interior states and wider economy. This movement is intrinsically tied up with the Bolsonaro family – so much so that they it has given this brand of conservative politics its name: bolsonarismo.

Second, both the Brazilian left and its centrist parties are in dire need of reinvention. At age 80, Lula has drawn obvious comparisons with Joe Biden in the US, even if the Brazilian leader remains a much sharper operator. Lula’s problems are not cognitive; rather they stem from a lack of fresh ideas and policies.

Lula has been present in Brazil’s political scene for decades and is serving his third non-consecutive term as president. But throughout the campaign he relied on a worn-out playbook of increased handouts and paternalistic politics. He has demonstrated, in his rhetoric and his policies, an inability to connect with a new generation of Brazilians who do not wish to rely on the state.

So what happens now? Flávio Bolsonaro has made clear that, should he succeed in the runoff, his burning political priority is to provide a pardon for his father, who is under house arrest after being convicted of plotting a coup following his own 2022 election defeat.

Beyond that, he has been notably short on ideas and proposals. A Bolsonaro victory would likely boost Brazilian markets, with traders and investors expecting Latin America’s largest economy to pivot back towards free-market policies and away from Lula’s state-centred approach. More than anything, the market will hope that Flávio Bolsonaro restores a sense of fiscal discipline, which has been sorely missing under Lula’s administration and in past left-wing

In the grander sense, a victory for Bolsonaro would solidify his family’s position in Brazilian politics for decades to come. For a fleeting moment early in this election cycle, it appeared that the mantle of bolsonarismo might pass to a centre-right candidate from outside the family. Now it’s clear that this clan isn’t ready to bow out. In addition to his father, Flávio’s three brothers and stepmother are all successful politicians.

For Lula, it is a time for soul-searching and emergency manoeuvres. He has 21 days to overcome a deficit of some 2.5 million votes. He has long been regarded as one of Brazil’s most cunning politicians. This will be either his last hurrah or his political farewell.

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