Medicare’s 2027 forecasts reveal a striking cost picture
The Medicare paperwork arriving in mailboxes this fall has more weight than usual for anyone enrolled in standalone drug coverage.
A policy reversal in Washington is about to alter what those plans will cost, and the Trustees’ routine projections cover only part of the shift.
The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects a standard Part B premium of $209.50 monthly for 2027, up $6.60 from the current $202.90 figure.
The Part D deductible, already finalized by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), climbs to $700 from $615 in 2026. That deductible move alone represents a roughly 14% jump, the steepest one-year increase in the redesigned drug benefit’s short history.
Adding to the changes, a $9.8 billion federal subsidy that has held down standalone drug plan premiums since 2025 expires, KFF reported.
The 68 million Americans on Medicare now face a wider gap between reviewing the fall paperwork carefully and letting a plan auto-renew, regardless of where a beneficiary falls in the program.
The end of the Part D stabilization demonstration alters drug plan pricing
CMS has confirmed the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration will expire at the end of 2026, one year short of the three-year duration CMS originally outlined as possible when it launched the program in 2024.
The program paid participating insurers directly to keep monthly premiums from spiking while they absorbed cost shifts from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) figures show the subsidy shaved $16 monthly off the average standalone prescription drug plan (PDP) premium in 2026.
The average standalone drug plan premium in 2026 was $36 a month, meaning the monthly subsidy accounted for close to a third of the full unsubsidized cost of about $52.
Juliette Cubanski, PhD, vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy at KFF, warned in her analysis that the withdrawal of federal support will land hardest on standalone plan enrollees, even though the plan-by-plan picture remains unclear.
<strong>Without these extra subsidies in place for 2027, some Part D stand-alone drug plan (PDP) enrollees could see a larger premium increase for drug coverage next year than they’ve faced in recent years, though plan-specific premium amounts are not yet known,</strong>
Around 25 million people were enrolled in standalone Part D plans in 2026, the group most exposed, since Medicare Advantage drug coverage is priced differently.
Beneficiaries who receive Extra Help through the federal Low-Income Subsidy program remain shielded from the standalone premium shift going into 2027.
What the Trustees Report and private forecasters signal for Part B
The 2025 Trustees Report pegged the 2027 Part B premium at $218.60, a figure the 2026 report has since revised downward by roughly $9 monthly.
That downward swing reflects lower-than-expected program spending through the first half of 2026 and updated utilization assumptions.
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Private forecasters are less convinced the final number will land that low. They are projecting the actual 2027 Part B premium to be between $215 and $219, based on a recent pattern of Trustees underestimating final CMS figures, Medicare Planning reported.
The Part B deductible is also projected to climb, rising to $292 in 2027 from $283, a 3.2% increase that closely tracks the premium adjustment. CMS will confirm both figures in its November 2026 announcement.
A higher-than-projected Part B landing would tighten the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) since the premium is deducted from monthly benefit checks before deposit, and it would also change Roth conversion timing for households approaching Medicare age.
Reading the Annual Notice of Change before open enrollment closes
Insurers must mail an Annual Notice of Change (ANOC) to every Medicare Advantage and Part D plan enrollee by September 30, 2026, showing how premiums, deductibles, formularies, and cost-sharing will shift for 2027, according to the CMS open enrollment page
That document is the earliest concrete signal beneficiaries will get about their plan cost, distinct from the national averages CMS publishes.
CMS will release the full 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D landscape by mid-to-late September 2026, giving beneficiaries about eight weeks of open enrollment, from October 15, 2026, through December 7, 2026, to compare plans in their area.
Anyone who does nothing gets auto-renewed into the current plan at 2027 terms, which include the higher deductible and, for standalone enrollees, an unsubsidized premium.
The comparison work means matching each medication to a plan’s formulary tier, work that gets sharper once the ANOC arrives with the 2027 formulary updates.
How beneficiaries should read the 2027 numbers
The end of the stabilization demonstration marks the first year since 2025 that standalone drug plans will set premiums without federal cushioning, based on KFF’s analysis.
The Part D out-of-pocket cap rises to $2,400 for 2027, and the base beneficiary premium reaches $41.33, both figures already finalized by CMS.
The Part D deductible, out-of-pocket cap, and base beneficiary premium are finalized for 2027, while the Part B premium remains a projection until CMS confirms it in November 2026.
The full year-over-year impact of the subsidy’s end won’t be visible until enrollees can compare their 2027 plan’s total drug costs against their 2026 total, a comparison that becomes possible once the ANOC arrives with plan-level pricing.
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