Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) bulls were expecting Wall Street to continue rewarding the stock following a momentous run spearheaded by AI demand, data-center expansion, and renewed confidence in the chipmaker’s roadmap.

For perspective, according to Seeking Alpha, AMD has dramatically outperformed the broader market, surging 5.6% over the past week, 15% over the past month, and 169% over the past six months.

Instead, according to TheFly.com , a fresh note from William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji added a more careful tone to the debate.

Naji’s a 5-star analyst according to TipRanks, ranking him 157 out of 12,372 Wall Street analysts, with an 81% success rate and a 56.5% average return per rating. 

The call stands out because AMD has not exactly been short of good news. Revenue is growing, AI partnerships are expanding, and investors have been treating the company as one of the few credible challengers in the accelerator market.

But Naji’s view complicates that easy bullish story.

AMD’s AI opportunity looks as massive as ever, yet the stock might need more than excitement to keep climbing.

Why William Blair’s AMD call stands out

William Blair’s Sebastien Naji is questioning how much of AMD’s AI story investors have already paid for.

He initiated Advanced Micro Devices with a market perform rating and a $565 fair-value estimate, framing the stock as already close to fairly valued following its AI-driven surge. 

Though he feels AMD is a major AI infrastructure beneficiary, it is not an obvious bargain at current levels, following a superb rally, with the company’s market value surging over $902 billion. 

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In addition, according to Seeking Alpha, AMD stock trades at over 73 times forward non-GAAP earnings, 195% higher than the sector median and 91% higher than the 5-year average. It is also trading at over 18 times forward sales estimates, 426% higher than the sector median.

To put it simply, the upside case might be real, but the stock isn’t cheap enough to chase without fresh evidence.

Nevertheless, Naji’s own numbers point to major earnings growth, including expected EPS of $7.90 in 2026 and $15.59 in 2027. He also sees AI model deployment, inference, and agentic AI driving demand across GPUs, CPUs, and other silicon.

But the competitive risks are rising in tandem.

In CPUs, Naji talked about pressure from Arm, Qualcomm, Nvidia, and Intel, with Intel potentially regaining competitiveness in server CPUs around 2028 with Coral Rapids. In GPUs, Nvidia remains the biggest obstacle because of its software advantage and broader platform.

Naji also points to hyperscaler ASICs, or custom AI chips, as a potential cap on AMD’s share gains. 

Jerod Harris/Getty Images for Vox Media

What AMD has been doing as the stock surged

• AMD’s latest quarterly results impressed, with Q1 2026 revenue up 38% to $10.3 billion, non-GAAP EPS up 43% to $1.37, and Data Center revenue up 57% to $5.8 billion.
• The company guided Q2 revenue to about $11.2 billion, plus or minus $300 million, implying 46% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.
• AMD solidified its AI narrative through a Meta partnership in deploying up to 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPUs, with first-gigawatt shipments slated for release in the second half of 2026.
• AMD has also started ramping its next-generation “Venice” EPYC processor on TSMC’s 2nm process and confirmed more than $10 billion in Taiwan ecosystem investments linked to AI infrastructure, advanced packaging, and Helios deployments.

What AMD investors should watch next

The next test comes quickly. AMD will report fiscal Q2 2026 results on Aug. 4 after the close, and the company is holding its Advancing AI 2026 event on July 22 and July 23.

According to Seeking Alpha, analysts are expecting normalized EPS of $1.61, GAAP EPS of $1.07, and revenue of $11.28 billion.

Sentiment appears mostly positive heading into the print, with 35 upward EPS revisions over the past 90 days against just one downward revision, suggesting analysts have been bumping expectations rather than cutting them.

For the bulls, AMD needs to continue to prove that Helios, MI450, and server CPU demand are turning into a durable revenue bridge into 2027 and 2028.

For those agreeing with Naji, AMD also needs to beat expectations fast enough to justify a stock already trading near his fair-value estimate. 

That is why his note is different. It does not say AMD is losing the AI race. It says AMD may be winning enough to matter, but not cheaply enough to ignore execution risk.

Wall Street price targets for AMD

Wall Street is mostly bullish on AMD stock, with Tipranks showing a strong buy consensus based on 28 buy ratings and eight hold ratings, with an average AMD price target of $515.69. 

• Goldman Sachs raised AMD to $640 from $450, keeping buy on stronger AI and server CPU expectations.
• Wells Fargo lifted AMD to $615 from $505, citing higher server CPU revenue estimates.
• Cantor Fitzgerald raised AMD to $700 from $500, the highest recent target, on compute momentum.
• UBS increased AMD to $670 from $455, keeping “buy” as AI CPU/GPU share gains support valuation.
• Bernstein lifted AMD to $600 from $525, maintaining outperform as AI chip momentum expands.
  Sources: Benzinga analyst ratings tracker, Yahoo Finance, Barron’s, TheStreet, Investing.com

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